House Democrats approach danger zone with retirements

Mar 4, 2010 — Washington Post

Chris Cillizza

1. The political import of New York Democratic Rep. Eric Massa's surprising retirement on Wednesday was largely eclipsed by the controversy surrounding why he decided to depart Congress after a single term. It shouldn't be. Massa is the seventh House Democrat leaving a seat that Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) won in 2008. That means that 43 percent of the Democratic retirements in the House so far in this election have come in McCain districts. It also means that 14 percent of the 49 Democratic members who hold McCain districts are retiring this fall. (Here's the full list of Democratic-held districts that McCain won.) In addition to the seven McCain districts that are now open seats, there are two others -- Kansas' 3rd and Washington's 3rd -- where Obama won with 51 percent and 53 percent, respectively, of the vote in 2008. (All told, those nine districts gave McCain an average of 54 percent.) Conventional wisdom has suggested that if Democrats have to defend 10 or more seats either won by McCain or narrowly carried by Obama that their majority status might be legitimately in danger. "We're in the [danger] zone," said Charlie Cook, a political handicapper and former Fix boss. "The open seats are a problem but [Democrats] have lots of problems." Remember, too, that filing deadlines have passed in only eight states. The next month, which includes filing deadlines in places like California (March 12), Iowa (March 19) and Missouri (March 30), will be critical in determining just how bad it is going to get for Democrats this fall.

2. Speaking of New York, Rep. Charlie Rangel (finally) gave up his chairmanship of the Ways and Means Committee on Wednesday -- an acknowledgment of the political damage his admonishment by the House Ethics Committee has caused. House Democratic strategists insisted that Rangel's decision, after initially refusing to step aside on Tuesday night, would effectively end the barrage of stories trying to link Democratic incumbents targeted in 2010 to the New York congressman. But, Republicans insisted that Rangel's decision to give up the gavel was only the first part of a two-pronged strategy. The second? "The goal is to wrap this around the neck of [House Speaker] Nancy Pelosi and undermine her credibility within the Democratic caucus," said one senior Republican strategist. Republicans have long coveted the idea of turning Pelosi into a national figure against whom they can run -- in much the same way Democrats across the country campaigned against then Speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.) in 1998. Recent polling suggests that Pelosi is far better known than she was when she took over the speakership last decade and public opinion runs heavily against her. Still, the Gingrich comparison is inexact. Gingrich was the de facto head of the Republican party and the chief antagonist of President Bill Clinton. Pelosi's party, on the other hand, controls the White House. This midterm election will almost certainly be nationalized. But, it will be a referendum on President Obama, not Pelosi.

3. A new Quinnipiac poll in the Pennsylvania governor's race shows state Attorney General Tom Corbett (R) has emerged as a clear favorite over any of a trio of Democrats he might face in the fall. The Democratic field, which includes Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato, state Auditor Jack Wagner and former Rep. Joe Hoeffel, is unknown even to its own primary voters; six in ten don't know who they will vote for in a primary trial heat. Corbett, who has systematically eliminated any serious competition for himself in the Republican primary, has opened up double digits leads over Onorato, Wagner and Hoeffel -- although Corbett is still in the low 40s on those ballot tests. Pennsylvania voters seem to want a change from Gov. Ed Rendell (D) too; Rendell has a net negative favorability rating and 60 percent of those tested said they were dissatisfied with the direction of the state. With Pennsylvania slated to lose a seat in the 2010 census and a number of Democratic House incumbents sitting in perilous districts, redistricting will be of critical importance in Pennsylvania. Corbett's strength should worry lots of Pennsylvania Democrats eying their political futures over the next decade.

4. Kentucky Attorney General Jack Conway (D) has moved quickly to take advantage of the national press attention Sen. Jim Bunning's (R) now-ended legislative blockade by launching television ads hammering the retiring Republican incumbent and the two GOPers trying to replace him. Conway accuses Bunning, a Hall of Fame pitcher, of "throwing high and wild" -- get it? -- and hits Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R) and businessman Rand Paul (R) for "shamefully cheering him on." The ads, which are running in the Lexington and Louisville media markets, make no mention of Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo against whom Conway is running for the Democratic nomination but do make clear that the state's top cop is casting himself as a populist; "I saved taxpayers millions of dollars by hammering the big drug and oil companies for price gouging," says Conway. With the May 18 primary just 75 days off(!), Conway appears to be moving to exploit his significant financial advantage over Mongiardo; at the end of 2009, Conway had nearly $1 million more in the bank than the Lieutenant Governor. The Republican primary fight between Grayson and Paul -- with all of its tea party intrigue -- is sure to dominate national headlines, the Conway-Mongiardo race could be the sleeper primary of the year. And, while Kentucky's Republican lean and the GOP-tilting nature of the national playing field makes it a tough race for Democrats, Bunning's cantankerous and unpredictable behavior is a major x-factor.

5. Former Arkansas governor -- and former/future -- presidential candidate Mike Huckabee waded into the Michigan gubernatorial primary, endorsing state Attorney General Mike Cox in a competitive four-way race in the economically ravaged state. "Mike Cox is pro-life, pro-family and pro-second amendment," says Huckabee in a recorded phone call, adding that Cox is a "champion for all the issues we hold dear." Cox is considered the co-frontrunner in the race along with Rep. Pete Hoekstra although wealthy businessman Rick Snyder and Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard also have a path to the nomination. Huckabee, who emerged as a conservative icon during his surprisingly successful 2008 presidential race, has dabbled in the endorsement game since that race. In 2009, he sent money -- via his Huck PAC -- to eleven total candidates including now Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell, former Florida state House Speaker Marco Rubio and Iowa gubernatorial candidate Bob Vander Plaats. Huckabee has long been criticized for his lack of any real political operation although the recent hiring of Hogan Gidley, a former executive director of the South Carolina Republican party, to run Huck PAC was seen as a step in the right direction.