Delahunt retirement ends a bad week for Democrats

Mar 5, 2010 — Washington Post

Chris Cillizza

1. Massachusetts Rep. Bill Delahunt's retirement late Thursday night was the latest in a series of difficult blows for House Democrats this week. Delahunt's 10th district is not exactly Republican territory -- President Obama carried it with 55 percent in 2008 -- but Sen. Scott Brown (R) did carry it in his special election win in January as did Mitt Romney in the 2002 governor's race. In a vacuum Delahunt's retirement would be a cause for concern but not exactly a problem for House Democratic strategists. But, politics doesn't exists in a vacuum and Delahunt's retirement comes in the same week that Rep. Charlie Rangel (D-N.Y.) stepped down from the Ways and Means Committee following the his admonishment at the hands of the House Ethics Committee and Rep. Eric Massa (D-N.Y.) announced his retirement after a single term amid an ethics investigation of his own. (That's not even to mention the problems of New York Gov. David Paterson -- what is it with Democratic elected officials in New York? -- and the talk that, after announcing his retirement last week, he may be forced to resign.) The cumulative effect? A diminishing and/or tarnishing of the Democratic brand -- the last thing the party, which is in the midst of trying to pass an unpopular health care bill, needs heading into the November midterm elections. The last week goes to show yet another way that politics is like sports. When the momentum is with you -- as it was for Democrats in 2006 and 2008 -- every break seems to go your way, every ball that hits the rim rolls in. When momentum is working against you, every break is a bad one. ALSO READ: Politico's Ben Smith and Glenn Thrush -- two veteran New York political reporters -- on just what is going on in the Empire State.

2. Delahunt's retirement is likely to lead to a very crowded primary on the Democratic side as ambitious up-and-comers who have been waiting nearly 15 years for the chance to run jump at the opportunity of an open seat. The biggest name on the Democratic side is Joe Kennedy III, the son of former Massachusetts representative Joe Kennedy II and the grandson of former senator Robert F. Kennedy. Kennedy the youngest told the Boston Globe earlier this week that he wouldn't run for Congress even if Delahunt retired and a source familiar with the situation said Kennedy wasn't likely to reconsider. Assuming Kennedy -- a field-clearer -- is out, a slew of Democrats are mentioned including: state Rep. Jamie Murphy, businessman Phillip Edmundson, Norfolk County District Attorney Bill Keating and former state representative Phil Johnston who ran and lost against Delahunt in a very contentious 1996 open seat primary. On the GOP side, national Republicans have expressed enthusiasm in the candidacy of former state treasurer Joe Malone who recently released a poll that put him in a statistical dead heat against Delahunt. Democrats, however, are ecstatic about the prospect of running against Malone due to a scandal involving several of his top staffers at the treasurer's office a decade ago. One intriguing name for Republicans could be Christy Mihos, a wealthy businessman currently running a long shot bid for the Republican gubernatorial nomination; Mihos also ran for governor as an independent in 2006 and took seven percent of the vote.

3. Just two days after Gov. Rick Perry (R) cruised to a primary victory over Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, a leading political handicapper moved the race to a toss up -- a boost for Democrats. Cook Political Report editor Jennifer Duffy called former Houston Mayor Bill White (D) "probably the strongest gubernatorial candidate Democrats have nominated since Ann Richards" in 1990 and added that White's business background would make it hard for Republicans to turn him into a "screaming liberal Democrat." Republicans admit privately that some of the statements Perry made while securing the GOP primary could come back to haunt him in the fall but are buoyed by the fact that more than twice as many people voted in the Republican primary as the Democratic primary on Tuesday. Democrats have been close to non-competitive in targeted statewide races since Richards' loss to George W. Bush in 1994. The lone major exception was the 1998 lieutenant governor's race in which John Sharp (D) came within a hair's breadth of beating a then little known politician named -- you guessed it -- Rick Perry. Given the conservative nature of the Texas electorate, Democrats need everything to fall into place to have a real chance at winning. White's profile coupled with Linda Chavez-Thompson's win in the primary for lieutenant governor -- a victory that should help drive Hispanic turnout in south Texas -- might give the party that chance. ALSO READ: Texas Monthly's Paul Burka on whether Democrats not named White can win statewide races this fall.

4. Wyoming Gov. Dave Freudenthal (D) ended months of speculation on Thursday by announcing that he would retire at the end of the year rather than challenge the state's term limit law to seek another four years in office. While Freudenthal was technically termed limited out of office this year -- he was elected in 2002 and reelected in 2006 -- a 2004 ruling by the Wyoming state Supreme Court overturning term limits for state legislators seemed to open the door for a legal challenge by Freudenthal that many observers (including many Republicans) thought he would win. Freudenthal's decision not to contest the law all but hands the race to Republicans given the strong GOP tilt of the state. (John McCain carried it with 65 percent in 2008.) Former U.S. attorney Matt Mead, state Auditor Rita Meyer and former state Department of Agriculture head Ron Micheli are in the race while state House Speaker Colin Simpson, whose father Alan Simpson represented the state in the Senate, is seriously considering a bid. Democrats acknowledge privately that the seat is close to a lost cause for them.

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