The health care campaign begins (again)

Mar 8, 2010 — Washington Post

Chris Cillizza

1. With President Obama's March 18 deadline to pass health care reform through Congress rapidly approaching, the American Future Fund, a conservative outside group, is spending $900,000 on television ads in 18 Democratic-held districts calling on members to scrap the current plan. The ads decry the "massive spending" and "backroom deals" including the now infamous "Cornhusker Kickback" in the legislation and quote President Obama's "lipstick on a pig" comments during the campaign. "Tell Congress to start over and get health care right," says the ad's narrator.

The districts that AFF is targeting include: Arizona's 1st, Arizona's 5th, Arizona's 8th, Indiana's 2nd, Indiana's 8th, Indiana's 9th, North Carolina's 2nd, North Dakota at large, Nevada's 3rd, New York's 24th, Ohio's 1st, Ohio's 6th, Ohio's 13th, Pennsylvania's 3rd, Pennsylvania's 10th, Wisconsin's 8th, West Virginia's 1st and West Virginia's 3rd. All 18 Democratic members targeted voted for the health care bill when it passed the House last November; eleven of the 18 districts went for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in 2008. (McCain carried 49 total districts currently represented by Democrats.) The AFF ads are almost certainly the leading edge of a cavalcade of spending by independent groups -- both conservative and liberal -- in the run-up to the vote.

ALSO CLICK: Saturday Night Live's take on the politics of the health care vote.

2. Former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) is moving toward a rematch against Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) this fall, according to those familiar with his thinking on the race. Ehrlich is widely seen as the only Republican who could win statewide in Maryland, having already done so once -- when he beat Kathleen Kennedy Townsend in the 2002 governor's race.

Former Ehrlich aides are beginning to build the foundation for his campaign, according to sources familiar with the effort. A recent poll released by O'Malley's campaign -- conducted by Fred Yang -- that showed the governor ahead of Ehrlich by a 51 percent to 41 percent margin. (O'Malley beat Ehrlich 53 percent to 46 percent in 2006.)

In expectation of Ehrlich's candidacy, political handicapper Stu Rothenberg moved from the race from safe for O'Malley to only a "narrow advantage" for the Democrat.

3. Former Genesee County treasurer Dan Kildee dropped out of the Michigan governor's race just two weeks after getting into the contest, the latest Democrat to end a candidacy for the state's top office. Kildee's exit from the race follows similar no-go decisions by Lt. Gov. John Cherry, University of Michigan Regent Denise Ilitch and former state treasurer Bob Bowman; Ilitch and Bowman were both eyed by national Democratic recruiters under the belief that their personal wealth and outsider profile could give the party a chance to hold what is a very difficult seat.

The Democratic race will now likely come down to state House Speaker Andy Dillon and Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero although, in many ways, it has been decided by those who have opted out of running. With Gov. Jennifer Granholm unpopular and term-limited and the state's economy in dire straits, Michigan is among the best pickup opportunities for Republicans in the country.

It's a four-way fight between state Attorney General Mike Cox, Rep. Pete Hoekstra, businessman Rick Snyder and Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard for the Republican nomination.

4. Mark Critz, the former district director for the late Rep. John Murtha (D), won the non-binding endorsement of local party officials in the southwestern Pennsylvania 12th district over the weekend. Critz beat out former state Treasurer Barbara Hafer although Hafer questioned the vote and insisted it would have little effect on today's binding vote by the Democratic state central committee.

The special election to replace Murtha is set for May 18. Republicans are choosing between businessman Tim Burns and 2008 12th district nominee Bill Russell. The district, which Murtha held from the early 1970s until his death last month, was the only one in the country that Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) won in 2004 and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) carried four years later.

5. Tonight's the night! "Politics and Pints", our monthly political (and other) trivia contest, will go down from 7-9 p.m. at the Capitol Lounge in Washington. Planning to come? Make sure to sign up on our Facebook page -- although you don't need to RSVP to show up. It's first come, first serve for team registration so get there earlier. Prizes WILL be awarded including official Fix t-shirts to the team with the best name!!! Tell your friends! Tell your enemies! Just be there!