New poll shows Democrats losing ground on national security

Mar 9, 2010 — Washington Post

Chris Cillizza

1. After closing the so-called "national security gap" in the 2006 and 2008 elections, congressional Democrats are losing ground on the issue, according to a new poll done by the Democratic firm of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research. Asked which party would do a better job on national security, 50 percent of likely voters chose Republicans while 33 percent opted for Democrats. Those numbers compare unfavorably for Democrats to Greenberg numbers in May of 2009 when likely voters were deeply divided on the question with 43 percent choosing Republicans and 41 percent Democrats. Even more concerning for the party in advance of the 2010 midterm election is that the erosion between the May 2009 and March 2010 was largest among political independents who now favor Republicans by a 56 percent to 20 percent margin. The reason for the slippage? "Historical doubts about the Democratic Party on national security show signs of reviving as many voters worry the president and his Administration are not dealing forcefully enough with terrorist suspects," according to Greenberg. To that end, a slim majority (51 percent) disapprove of President Obama's handling of the "prosecution and interrogation of terrorism suspects" while 46 percent of likely voters said they felt less confident about the Obama Administration's ability to deal with the terrorist threat following the attempted bombing on Christmas Day. Greenberg's advice to Democrats is to avoid arguing the terrorism and national security isues on "constitutional principles" but rather focus on the "broader context of the Obama administration's successful efforts over the past year to take the fight to the terrorists." Greenberg's numbers land less than two months after Democrats lost a Senate special election in Massachusetts, a Republican victory that strategists for Sen. Scott Brown acknowledged was due in large part to his focus on the Obama administration's plan to grant trials to accuses terrorists in civilian courts. Given Democrats' dismal numbers on the economy at the moment, any struggle on national security issues -- an area where the party seemed to have found a way to fight Republicans to a draw -- is doubly concerning with election day rapidly approaching.

2. Democrats are doing everything they can to keep the controversial Republican National Committee fundraising document in the news. The latest tactic? The Democratic National Committee is launching "Fight the Fear," an effort to catalog scare tactics being used by the other side. An email from DNC executive director Jen O'Malley Dillon announcing the campaign is being sent to those who donated to the committee in the immediate aftermath of the RNC document seeing the light of day last week; she promises to "call out the most egregious examples and "hit back hard with the truth in ads and organizing against the Republican candidates involved." The model for "Fight the Fear" is "Fight the Smears" (it even rhymes!), an effort launched by President Obama during the 2008 campaign to push back at misinformation that had found its way into the public dialogue. These sorts of tactics, which rate slightly higher than pure gimmickry, are aimed entirely at the party base; the goal is to drive enthusiasm/indignation that can be bottled in the form of grassroots organizing or, preferably, fundraising help. Finding ways to gin up the Democratic base is particularly important in the coming midterms as poll after poll has shown an intensity disparity between Republicans and Democrats.

3. National Democrats gleefully touted a new Survey USA poll in Minnesota showing that a majority of the state's voters disapproved of the job Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) was doing while an even larger percentage (63 percent) said that he should not run for president in 2012. Pawlenty spokesman Alex Conant ascribed the somewhat sluggish numbers to the fact that the governor "is making tough decision to balance the budget without raising taxes," adding: "It's premature to ask questions about 2012 -- let alone read anything into their results." While the numbers are far from stellar, it's hard to imagine that they will have any significant impact on Pawlenty's standing in the 2012 field. For one, politicians of all stripes and parties are deeply unpopular these days; in the same poll just one in four voters approved of how the Democratic-controlled legislature was handling its job while a whopping 66 percent disapproved. Second, most states tend not to think their home state politician should run for national office in the early days of his/her candidacy as they struggle to envision that person occupying the big chair. As campaigns drag on, the "rally behind our guy" phenomenon tends to take effect and, even if it doesn't, it will make almost no difference to Pawlenty's chances at winning the GOP nod since Minnesota is too late in the nominating calendar to have any significant impact. The constituencies that matter to Pawlenty now? Donors, grassroots activists and the Republican voters of Iowa and New Hampshire. Period.

4. New polling in the Kentucky Senate race casts businessman Rand Paul and Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo as the Republican and Democratic frontrunners in advance of the state's May 18 primary date. Paul, the son of Texas Rep. Ron Paul, held a 42 percent to 27 percent edge over Secretary of State Trey Grayson in the Bluegrass Poll conducted for the Lousville Courier-Journal by Survey USA. (Survey USA is an auto-dial firm; you can read about the issues with the auto-dial methodology here.) Grayson is the handpicked candidate of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) but has struggled to adapt to the grassroots strength (and fundraising prowess) of Paul. On the Democratic side, state Attorney General Jack Conway gets most of the attention in Washington -- he was recently on "Hardball" -- but Mongiardo boasted a 45 percent to 27 percent margin in the Survey USA poll. Mongiardo ran for the Senate in 2004 as a little known state senator and came withing a hair's breadth of knocking off Sen. Jim Bunning (R). Conway clearly has ground to make up but as of the end last year he had roughly $1 million more in the bank than Mongiardo, a financial edge that he will likely exploit in the final few months of the contest.

5. In a demonstration of the continued strength of the political operation the late John Murtha (D) built in southwestern Pennsylvania, the Democratic State Central Committee chose Mark Critz, Murtha's former district director, as the party's candidate for the May 18 special election in the 12th district. Critz beat out former state treasurer Barbara Hafer in the vote of party insiders; the short race had grown nasty as Hafer insisted that Critz would imperil the seat due to his testimony in front of the House Ethics Committee. Hafer had previously pledged to run in the May 18 primary -- yes, it's on the same day as the special election -- to try to become the party's nominee for the full two-year term this fall but it was not clear whether she planned to make good on that promise in the wake of her defeat. Republicans will choose their candidate -- businessman Tim Burns and 2008 nominee Bill Russell are in the running -- on Thursday. The GOP vote will be conducted among 134 Republican conferees from the counties of the district; each county gets one conferee and then an additional conferee foe every thousand votes that Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) won the in the county in the 2008 presidential race. The two big prizes: Westmoreland County (38 conferees) and Cambria County (26 conferees).