Bill Clinton surpasses Barack Obama in popularity

Jul 22, 2010 — Washington Post

Chris Cillizza

1. For the first time in Gallup polling former President Bill Clinton has eclipsed President Barack Obama in popularity, a reminder of the political difficulties posed by governing and of Clinton's strength as a surrogate for Democratic candidates this fall.

More than six in ten (61 percent) of all adults see Clinton in a favorable light as compared to 52 percent who say the same of Obama. (Former President George W. Bush is, not surprisingly, at the bottom of that list with 45 percent of people viewing him in a favorable light.)

While self-identifying Democrats like both men immensely -- 89 percent favorable for Clinton, 86 percent favorable for Obama -- Clinton has a double digit bulge over Obama among independents and Republicans.

The Gallup data shows that Obama and Clinton have been on two very different paths in terms of public opinion since the 2008 election.

When Obama took over the White House in January 2009, more than three quarters (78 percent) felt favorably toward him, while Clinton, still damaged from the overtly political role he had played on his wife's behalf during the presidential primaries, was mired in the mid 50s.

Clinton's favorable numbers have steadily increased since that time while Obama's have steadily dropped -- reaching and holding in the lows 50s since the spring of this year.

The numbers provide a potent reminder that no matter how popular or well liked a politician is when he (or she) runs for and wins an office, the perils of governing make staying that popular impossible.

Obama had further to fall than almost any other modern politician because he swept into office on such a high note but the choices he has made in office have, inevitably, taken some of the shine off of his image.

Clinton, on the other hand, has watched his approval ratings yo-yo over the last several years -- dipping badly during the 2008 presidential race but recovering nicely now that he is largely removed from the daily political grind.

Seen through a political lens, the numbers suggest that Clinton and not Obama may well be the more effective surrogate this fall for Democrats running in tough races around the country. His high favorable numbers among independents -- and the fact that one in three Republicans like him -- make him the sort of person that can go into culturally conservative areas and serve as a credible salesman for the Democratic brand.

Clinton has already done so in places like his native Arkansas -- for Sen. Blanche Lincoln -- and southwestern Pennsylvania in the special election to replace the late Rep. John Murtha (D). Expect more of Clinton on the campaign trail in the weeks and months to come.

2.The revelation that the Republican National Committee failed to report about $3 million in debt for the months of April and May is a blow to the committee less than four months away from Election Day.

The RNC paid off all of the debts in June but that still means that it currently has less than $9 million on hand compared to $11 million for the Democratic National Committee (Worth noting: Democrats had $3.9 million in debts at the end of June).

In the second quarter, the DNC slightly outperformed its Republican counterpart: The DNC outraised the RNC $6.4 million to $5.9 million last month and $23.4 million to $19.3 million in the second quarter (April 1 to June 30).

The RNC debt controversy also comes on the heels of new numbers released by the parties' Senate campaign committees this week showing that Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee pulled in $7.1 million in June and have $21 million in their coffers, while the National Republican Senatorial Committee raised $4 million in June and has nearly $20 million on hand.

The latest kerfuffle at the RNC has some of its members fretting about the effect the series of controversies will have on the party's ability to compete in the fall. One RNC member said that the committee's July fundraising numbers are "not good" and that its next report will show the committee in a "seriously weakened position." Added the source: "The fear that everyone has is that these problems, both real and imaginary, are going to affect the ability for us to win some seats."

3. The bizarre saga that is former Connecticut Republican Rep. Rob Simmons' on-again, off-again 2010 Senate effort took its oddest turn yet Wednesday when the sort-of candidate launched a new television commercial.

Simmons maintains he is not re-activating his campaign, which he suspended in late May due to the overwhelming financial advantage for former wrestling executive Linda McMahon, in advance of the Aug. 10 primary. But he is using about $350,000 in leftover funds to go up with an ad reminding voters that he's "still on the ballot" in case they want to vote for him. (Um, what?)

"In the Republican primary on Aug. 10, you do have a choice," Simmons says in the ad. "I'm Rob Simmons, I'm still on the ballot, and I approved this message."

Top staffers from Simmons' aborted campaign were not involved in the creation of the ads, and the candidate is also using a new media consultant -- a reflection that not everyone is on board with whatever strategy Simmons is pursuing.

It's hard to see what Simmons is trying to accomplish with the ads, besides pursuing a vanity project. A Quinnipiac poll released Friday shows him trailing McMahon by 27 points with three weeks to go. McMahon, who has significant personal wealth, also has the ability to drown out Simmons ads with her own should she choose to.

McMahon spokesman Ed Patru said the Simmons situation has turned into a sideshow. "Today, we are as confused as everyone else," Patru said. "Rob Simmons has said many times he's a man of his word, and we take him at his word. Should he decide to officially un-curtail his campaign, we're prepared for that, as we have been since September 2009."

Simmons had $885,000 on hand at the end of the June, meaning he would still have another half million dollars to spend if he wants to.

Simmons's aides have been quick to shoot down speculation that the former congressman would get back in the race. From his ad and his words, though, it's clear where the candidate's heart is.

The winner of the primary will likely face state Attorney General Dick Blumenthal in the fall. Polling shows Blumnenthal as a clear favorite against all comers.

4. Anew poll shows Sen. Lisa Murkowski decimating her little-known Republican primary opponent with about a month to go until the August 24 primary.

The poll, which was conducted by Anchorage-based pollster Ivan Moore, shows Murkowski leading attorney Joe Miller , who has been endorsed by former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and her husband, 62 percent to 30 percent.

Murkowski's approval rating in the poll is 53 percent positive and 28 percent negative. That's better than Palin's rating of 47 percent positive and 41 percent negative.

On Monday, Miller said on ABC/Washington Post's "Top Line" program that it's "absolutely definite" Palin's endorsement has helped him in the race, noting that it's given him "national recognition."

The poll's results, however, indicate that Miller has a long way to go in terms of recognition statewide: only 18 percent of respondents viewed him positively, while 13 percent viewed him negatively. That means that nearly seven in ten respondents didn't know enough about Miller to offer an opinion, a wide name identification gap to make up in the next month.

Miller has been backed by the Tea Party Express, which has indicated that it may spend as much as $1 million on the race. That kind of spending could indeed move Miller's numbers up but the poll shows he remains a decided underdog at the moment.

5. The National Republican Congressional Committee expanded its list of House targets Wednesday to include some heavily Democratic territory.

The NRCC added challengers to several entrenched Democratic incumbents in deep blue districts to its watch list -- an effort aimed at broadening the playing field in advance of the November midterm elections.

Among the new additions: Delia Lopez, who is running against Oregon Rep. Earl Blumenauer in a district that went for President Barack Obama with 71 percent of the vote in 2008, and author Star Parker who is running against California Rep. Laura Richardson in a strongly Democratic district. The GOP is also adding candidates in solidly blue districts held by Reps. Dennis Kucinich , Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas) and Marcy Kaptur .

Other additions include two candidates in retiring Michigan Rep. Bart Stupak's very competitive 1st district, two candidates in for the open Louisiana seat currently held by Rep. Charlie Melancon and challengers to Iowa Democratic Reps. Bruce Braley, David Loebsack and Leonard Boswell.

The NRCC has cast a very wide net with its recruiting program in 2010. The addition of 19 candidates to the first stage of the so called "Young Guns" program brings the program's overall membership to more than 120 candidates.

While the effort is largely viewed as a success within the Republican conference several candidates touted by national GOPers -- Vaughn Ward in Idaho, Ethan Hastert in Illinois and Jim Gibbons in Iowa to name three -- have come up short in their primaries.

With Felicia Sonmez and Aaron Blake